On paper, Baku doesn’t immediately read like a Red Bull circuit. Yet last year they claimed a chaotic victory there with a car that was noticeably less competitive than this season’s package.
As on Friday last year, they finished the day quickest today. Daniel Ricciardo topped the timesheets by under a tenth of a second ahead of Kimi Raikkonen’s Ferrari. Does that put them in contention for pole on Saturday? Max Verstappen’s comments on Thursday suggested otherwise: without the qualifying power modes, Verstappen said they need to be “a few tenths ahead” in practice to fight in qualifying. Ricciardo, however, believes the car will be “very strong” over a race distance.
With Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton both around seven to eight tenths off the pace, Mercedes’ dominance in Baku appears to have faded. Historic swings from Friday to Saturday are possible — last year Mercedes were only a tenth off on Friday before topping qualifying by more than a second — but today’s gaps point to a different competitive order.
Ferrari looks the bigger threat for pole. They have locked out the front row in each of the past two races and appear to have a better handle on preparing the tyres for a single flying lap than Mercedes.
Pirelli expects the race to be run on a one-stop strategy, which makes it unlikely that front-runners will start on anything other than the ultra-softs. Mercedes showed some graining in the cool Friday conditions and may be more cautious than most. Cooler weather on Sunday could worsen graining early on, though as the track rubbers in grip should increase and reduce the problem.
Further down the order, the margins between teams are slim. Force India’s steady progress continued: in China they looked capable of getting both cars into Q3 but Esteban Ocon made a late mistake. Sergio Perez says qualifying will expose which midfield drivers can extract the maximum from their tyres. “The midfield group is really tight together,” he commented. “Tomorrow the driver can make quite a difference. It’s going to be very interesting between the drivers that get it perfect and the drivers that don’t. You can see quite a difference also across team mates.”
Baku’s long straights amplify the slipstream effect, so teams may try to coordinate runs to gain tow on the straights. Fernando Alonso favours the tactic and McLaren experimented with it in practice.
Wind, however, could complicate matters. A tailwind into a braking zone or a headwind down a straight can ruin a lap — and cars vary in how sensitive they are to gusts. Renault drivers struggled with wind in Melbourne, and Kevin Magnussen admits he isn’t sure how much it will affect his Haas. “In the times we’ve had wind you can feel it a lot and it upsets the car a lot. I’m hoping everyone has that,” he said.
Some forecasts suggest Saturday’s winds could be strong enough that few drivers escape their influence, potentially turning qualifying into a lottery on an already finely balanced grid. “If it’s 10–20kph headwind or tailwind, it does change the braking point and the downforce you get,” said Romain Grosjean. “If Meteo France is right and we get 80kph gusts that could be a bit more emotional…”
Behind the headline battles, the midfield fight looks especially close. Teams and drivers who can combine clean laps with smart use of slipstreams and adapt to shifting wind conditions will have the best chance of improving their grid positions.
Longest stint comparison – second practice
The chart below shows each driver’s lap times (in seconds) during their longest uninterrupted stint. Very slow laps have been omitted.
Complete practice times
| Pos | Driver | Car | FP1 | FP2 | Total laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull-TAG Heuer | 1’44.277 | 1’42.795 | 59 |
| 2 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’46.861 | 1’42.864 | 43 |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-TAG Heuer | 1’45.559 | 1’42.911 | 38 |
| 4 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’44.242 | 1’43.570 | 51 |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’45.200 | 1’43.603 | 55 |
| 6 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren-Renault | 1’46.465 | 1’43.700 | 59 |
| 7 | Esteban Ocon | Force India-Mercedes | 1’45.237 | 1’43.814 | 59 |
| 8 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | 1’48.741 | 1’43.834 | 47 |
| 9 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | 1’47.434 | 1’43.977 | 47 |
| 10 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’46.749 | 1’44.091 | 44 |
| 11 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’46.513 | 1’44.127 | 56 |
| 12 | Sergio Perez | Force India-Mercedes | 1’45.075 | 1’44.142 | 57 |
| 13 | Romain Grosjean | Haas-Ferrari | 1’46.856 | 1’44.425 | 50 |
| 14 | Lance Stroll | Williams-Mercedes | 1’46.590 | 1’44.459 | 57 |
| 15 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso-Honda | 1’46.492 | 1’44.712 | 57 |
| 16 | Charles Leclerc | Sauber-Ferrari | 1’46.875 | 1’44.940 | 51 |
| 17 | Sergey Sirotkin | Williams-Mercedes | 1’46.480 | 1’45.007 | 61 |
| 18 | Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso-Honda | 1’46.747 | 1’45.051 | 68 |
| 19 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren-Renault | 1’47.967 | 1’45.288 | 50 |
| 20 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber-Ferrari | 1’47.073 | 1’46.042 | 30 |
Quotes: Dieter Rencken
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