Will Rain End Leclerc’s Chance to Break Home Grand Prix Curse?

Charles Leclerc is not superstitious, but his record at the Monaco Grand Prix has made questions of luck hard to ignore. The Ferrari driver has never finished a race in Monte Carlo during his single-seater career and even failed to start last season’s home race despite taking pole. This Sunday he has the chance to end that run and become the first Monegasque driver to win his home grand prix.

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Leclerc has given himself the best possible start by claiming pole after a weekend in which he looked the most comfortable driver among the leading teams. After years of disappointment, does he expect bad luck to strike again?

“No, no… I’m not superstitious at all,” Leclerc said. “We’ve had a smooth weekend until now and we’re starting in the best place possible for tomorrow’s race. Hopefully we have a clean race tomorrow and finally get a good result at home. I don’t think about the past, I just focus on my job for tomorrow.”

The season so far has been defined by the Ferrari–Red Bull fight on race day. For Sunday, Leclerc will start alongside team mate Carlos Sainz Jnr on the front row after Sergio Perez crashed on his final Q3 lap, compromising the last flying attempts for several drivers.

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner acknowledged how difficult it will be for Perez and championship leader Max Verstappen to get past the two Ferraris over 78 laps. “Checo is frustrated — he’s been on it all weekend and hoped for more today — and it was also frustrating for Max as that’s the second consecutive year he’s missed out on a final flying lap,” Horner said. “It will be all about positioning into the first corner and I am sure Ferrari will be synchronised, so let’s see what happens tomorrow.”

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Monaco races tend to follow a familiar pattern: the start decides who reaches Sainte Devote first, that driver controls the pace and track position through a single-stop strategy, and the front-runners often stay ordered for the remainder of the race unless a safety car reshuffles things. It has been five years since a Monaco Grand Prix wasn’t led by the same driver from lights to flag.

This year a rule change removing the requirement for the top 10 to start on their fastest Q2 tyres could inject strategic variety. Top teams are no longer locked into soft tyres at the start, and Pirelli expects medium and hard compounds to play a bigger role during the race.

“Whatever happens, a variety of strategies is possible, with all three compounds playing an important role,” Pirelli’s Mario Isola said. “The soft tyre was essential for qualifying, but with the wear we’ve seen, the medium and hard tyres are likely to be the focus of the race.” Based on Pirelli’s data, starting on mediums and switching to hards looks like the most straightforward approach: mediums give more durability than softs and allow teams to lengthen the opening stint to react to safety cars or find a clearer window to pit into.

All of that depends on dry conditions. Early forecasts suggested only a 30% chance of rain on race day, but as the weekend progressed the paddock increasingly expected wet weather before the 15:00 start. For Verstappen — starting from his lowest grid spot since Saudi Arabia and facing two quick Ferraris — a little rain would be welcome, as it increases the chance of chaos and overtaking opportunities on a circuit where passing is normally nearly impossible.

“I think I need to do a little rain dance tonight, shake it up a bit for the race tomorrow because in the dry you cannot pass around here,” Verstappen said. “A little bit of chaos would be nice. But if it’s not, you just try to score the most points possible from the position you’re in.”

George Russell, who qualified sixth for Mercedes despite suffering from bouncing all weekend, agreed rain would help teams starting further back. “I think the only two people who wouldn’t want rain are the ones on the front row,” he said. “We don’t do many laps on intermediates or wets, so tyre behaviour is uncertain. They might last the whole race or only 15–20 laps, and that uncertainty can open windows for drivers further down the order.”

Although Leclerc has little experience driving Monaco in the wet, he said he and the team are prepared. “I don’t think I’ve ever driven in the wet here, not that I remember,” he said. “Monaco is one of the most challenging tracks and it’s even tougher in the wet, but we’re ready. The last two years were difficult in the wet, but this year we seem better placed to make it work.”

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Over to you

Will Charles Leclerc finally break his Monaco curse and win his home grand prix, or will a typically processional Monaco race produce one of its rare surprises? Share your views on the Monaco Grand Prix in the comments.

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