Sainz Accepts Pole’s Slim Win Chances, Promises to Make Rivals’ Race a Challenge

Ferrari’s Monza Masterclass: Carlos Sainz Secures Pole Position at the Italian Grand Prix

The Italian Grand Prix at Monza, revered as the “Temple of Speed,” has long held a special place in the hearts of Formula 1 fans, particularly those loyal to the Scuderia Ferrari. Despite the overwhelming dominance of teams like Red Bull with Max Verstappen in recent years, and Mercedes with Lewis Hamilton before them, Monza has surprisingly remained a stronghold for the Prancing Horse. This historic circuit, known for its passionate tifosi, consistently inspires Ferrari to perform at their peak, often defying their season-long struggles.

In the five Italian Grand Prix weekends leading up to 2023, Ferrari had a remarkable record on Saturdays, securing pole position in three of those five years. This success rate at Monza is one of their best at any venue over the same period, highlighting the unique connection between the team and its home race. The pressure and expectation from the thousands of crimson-clad fans evidently fuel an extra drive within the team, often translating into exhilarating qualifying performances.

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Sainz Shines Bright: A Triumphant Qualifying Performance

The 2023 weekend at Monza began with promising signs for Ferrari. After demonstrating impressive pace in practice sessions, Carlos Sainz Jnr consistently topped the timings, setting the fastest lap in both Friday’s second practice and Saturday morning’s final session. This momentum culminated in a spectacular qualifying performance where Sainz, battling intensely, secured pole position for the Italian Grand Prix. His achievement marked him as the 14th Ferrari driver to claim pole at Monza, joining an illustrious list that includes team mate Charles Leclerc, Kimi Raikkonen, Michael Schumacher, Niki Lauda, Juan Manuel Fangio, and even Alberto Ascari – the legendary driver after whom Monza’s challenging third chicane is named.

The Spaniard’s joy was palpable as he learned he had taken pole. “Vamos! Vamos!” Sainz exclaimed over the radio, holding his arm aloft in the cockpit with a triumphant finger pointed skyward. This gesture, witnessed by the fervent crowds around the Autodromo, unmistakably declared who was the fastest on this memorable day. Sainz later reflected on the session: “Honestly, this qualifying session, I enjoyed it a lot. I enjoyed the battle already from Q3 run one, where we did 1’20.5, all three of us. I knew it was going to be super, super tight and all about the details and risks going into the second run and it was really good fun.”

Sainz’s victory hopes may rest on Leclerc passing Verstappen

The battle for pole was incredibly tight, with Sainz almost losing out to Max Verstappen, the Dutchman who had been quickest in seven of the last eight qualifying sessions. Sainz managed to pull a tenth of a second ahead of the Red Bull driver through the Della Roggia chicane, maintaining his advantage until the final corner of Alboreto (formerly Parabolica). However, Verstappen executed a superior exit and rapidly gained time on the Ferrari, ultimately falling short by a mere 0.013 seconds at the finish line. This razor-thin margin underscored the intensity of the competition and the exceptional performance delivered by both drivers.

Ferrari’s Speed Advantage: A Glimmer of Hope

The close proximity between Sainz – noticeably the quicker of the two Ferrari drivers – and Verstappen – the dominant force in the faster Red Bull – was a consistent theme throughout the initial two days of running. Ferrari demonstrated a slight but crucial advantage in top speed, a vital asset on the calendar’s fastest circuit. Sainz, on his pole lap, reached an impressive 350 km/h at the end of the pit straight, a full four kilometers-per-hour faster than the Red Bull. His consistent higher speed compared to his team mate, Leclerc, suggested a strategic choice of running slightly reduced wing levels on his Ferrari, optimizing for straight-line speed at the expense of some downforce.

Despite being edged out for only the fifth time in 2023’s qualifying sessions, Verstappen remained philosophical. “I’m happy with second, to be honest,” he stated. “Here in Monza it’s always very tight. Sometimes you might jump ahead, sometimes you’re just behind but I’m confident for tomorrow.” His confidence is well-founded, as Red Bull’s race car has consistently proven to be significantly stronger than its qualifying performance suggests. Verstappen made no attempt to be humble when questioned about his car’s likely superiority over the Ferraris on race day. “I mean, so far this year, yes,” Verstappen affirmed. “So hopefully it will be the same tomorrow.”

Race Day Predictions: A Battle for Supremacy

Verstappen is confident of taking his 10th win in a row

Before the Monza weekend, Pierre Gasly had speculated that this might be “the trickiest race for Max to win.” He suggested that if any rival could remain within DRS range of the Red Bull, the powerful drag reduction effect would prevent Verstappen from disappearing half a minute up the road, as he has so frequently done throughout the 2023 season. However, with Verstappen starting right behind him, Sainz is determined to do more than simply stay within a second of the Red Bull. “If I get a good start, I’m going to do everything I can to stay ahead of Max,” Sainz declared. “I think, looking back at this year, 100% of races, they’ve been quicker and they’ve been clearly quicker – so that makes me feel like it’s not going to be easy at all and they’re going to try a way past one way or another.”

Beyond the raw race pace, Sainz is acutely aware of Red Bull’s superior consistency with tires over a stint. Pirelli’s decision to bring a step softer tire compounds for this weekend might inadvertently favor Red Bull on Sunday, given their proven ability to manage tire degradation more effectively than Ferrari. This factor adds another layer of complexity to Ferrari’s challenge, demanding impeccable strategy and execution if they are to convert pole position into a victory.

The Battle Behind the Leaders: Russell and Albon Shine

Behind the anticipated fight for the win, George Russell masterfully navigated a challenging weekend for Mercedes, securing a surprising fourth-place start on the second row. Despite the difficulties, Russell remains optimistic about the race. “I think it’s going to be challenging,” Russell admitted. “I think we’ll have good race pace, the tire deg doesn’t look very high. We need to be fast around the pit stops, I expect to have better tire deg than Ferrari, so our only chance is to be faster on the pit stops and do something slightly different to them.” His strategy hints at a focus on efficiency and alternative approaches to gain an edge over the faster Ferraris.

Russell expects Mercedes will be competitive in race trim

Alexander Albon, meanwhile, fully capitalized on Williams’ suspected potential at Monza, placing his car an impressive sixth on the grid. He outqualified both McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, with Lewis Hamilton splitting the MCL60s. Unsurprisingly, Williams demonstrated exceptional straight-line speed, ranking near the top of the speed trap charts in qualifying. In stark contrast, Mercedes found themselves slowest of all in a straight line, leading Hamilton to comment that Albon would be “almost impossible to overtake” for both him and the McLarens. This stark performance differential highlights the unique aerodynamic compromises teams made for Monza’s high-speed layout.

Monza Race Strategy: One-Stop or Two?

For the first time since the Miami Grand Prix in early May, conditions have remained consistently dry throughout the grand prix weekend and are forecast to continue so on Sunday. This ensures that the Italian Grand Prix will be a straightforward, unhindered showdown between Ferrari and Max Verstappen’s Red Bull.

If Sainz can maintain his lead from the start, it would significantly strengthen Ferrari’s position. However, for a genuine chance at victory, Ferrari might need a coordinated team effort on lap one to get both their cars ahead of Verstappen. This tactical move could represent their best, albeit still slender, opportunity to break Red Bull’s winning streak, especially considering Verstappen’s consistent strength as tires begin to degrade during a race stint.

Drivers may only get one realistic opportunity to leapfrog their rivals through the pits, as Pirelli anticipates the usual Monza one-stop strategy will prevail, despite the softer tire compounds brought for this year’s race. All signs point to the hard tire almost certainly being the compound of choice for that single stop. The decision of whether to start on softs or mediums will depend on how aggressively teams want to attack the frantic dash down to the Rettifilo chicane off the starting line. A softer compound could offer initial grip but might compromise the later stages of the race if degradation is high.

While Ferrari genuinely faces their best chance of the year to finally break Red Bull’s iron grip on the 2023 season, Sainz harbors no illusions about the immense challenge ahead. Becoming the 12th driver to secure a home victory for Ferrari in Italy will demand a flawless performance. “I think we will need to work well as a team and give it our best shot,” Sainz emphasized. “I think it’s a good opportunity tomorrow, but also being realistic, the Red Bull should be quicker. We’re just going to try and make their life as complicated as possible and try to take the win.” The stage is set for a thrilling conclusion at Monza.

Qualifying Times in Full

Position Number Driver Team Q1 time Q2 time (vs Q1) Q3 time (vs Q2)
1 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 1’21.965 1’20.991 (-0.974s) 1’20.294 (-0.697s)
2 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’21.573 1’20.937 (-0.636s) 1’20.307 (-0.630s)
3 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1’21.788 1’20.977 (-0.811s) 1’20.361 (-0.616s)
4 63 George Russell Mercedes 1’22.148 1’21.382 (-0.766s) 1’20.671 (-0.711s)
5 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’21.911 1’21.240 (-0.671s) 1’20.688 (-0.552s)
6 23 Alexander Albon Williams-Mercedes 1’21.661 1’21.272 (-0.389s) 1’20.760 (-0.512s)
7 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren-Mercedes 1’22.106 1’21.527 (-0.579s) 1’20.785 (-0.742s)
8 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’21.977 1’21.369 (-0.608s) 1’20.820 (-0.549s)
9 4 Lando Norris McLaren-Mercedes 1’21.995 1’21.581 (-0.414s) 1’20.979 (-0.602s)
10 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin-Mercedes 1’22.043 1’21.543 (-0.500s) 1’21.417 (-0.126s)
11 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 1’21.852 1’21.594 (-0.258s) Missed by 0.013s
12 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 1’22.112 1’21.758 (-0.354s) Missed by 0.177s
13 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari 1’22.343 1’21.776 (-0.567s) Missed by 0.195s
14 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’22.249 1’21.940 (-0.309s) Missed by 0.359s
15 2 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes 1’21.930 1’21.944 (+0.014s) Missed by 0.363s
16 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’22.390 Missed by 0.047s
17 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault 1’22.545 Missed by 0.202s
18 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault 1’22.548 Missed by 0.205s
19 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari 1’22.592 Missed by 0.249s
20 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin-Mercedes 1’22.860 Missed by 0.517s

Sector Times

Position Number Driver Sector one Sector two Sector three Ultimate lap Deficit to ultimate lap
1 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr 26.701 (3) 26.988 (1) 26.605 (5) 1’20.294
2 1 Max Verstappen 26.758 (4) 27.049 (2) 26.5 (1) 1’20.307
3 16 Charles Leclerc 26.667 (1) 27.101 (3) 26.593 (3) 1’20.361
4 63 George Russell 26.889 (6) 27.159 (4) 26.594 (4) 1’20.642 0.029
5 11 Sergio Perez 26.904 (8) 27.171 (5) 26.574 (2) 1’20.649 0.039
6 23 Alexander Albon 26.672 (2) 27.363 (9) 26.724 (7) 1’20.759 0.001
7 81 Oscar Piastri 26.925 (10) 27.179 (6) 26.681 (6) 1’20.785
8 44 Lewis Hamilton 26.807 (5) 27.201 (7) 26.812 (9) 1’20.820
9 4 Lando Norris 26.9 (7) 27.27 (8) 26.749 (8) 1’20.919 0.060
10 14 Fernando Alonso 26.91 (9) 27.527 (11) 26.9 (10) 1’21.337 0.080
11 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 27.032 (14) 27.462 (10) 27.078 (13) 1’21.572 0.022
12 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari 27.154 (17) 27.55 (12) 26.955 (11) 1’21.659 0.117
13 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 26.965 (12) 27.657 (13) 27.072 (12) 1’21.694 0.064
14 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 26.968 (13) 27.73 (14) 27.147 (14) 1’21.845 0.095
15 2 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes 26.94 (11) 27.771 (15) 27.199 (15) 1’21.910 0.020
16 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 27.051 (15) 27.978 (18) 27.309 (16) 1’22.338 0.052
17 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari 27.321 (20) 27.829 (16) 27.379 (18) 1’22.529 0.063
18 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault 27.119 (16) 28.047 (19) 27.379 (18) 1’22.545
19 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault 27.296 (19) 27.859 (17) 27.393 (20) 1’22.548
20 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin-Mercedes 27.267 (18) 28.076 (20) 27.363 (17) 1’22.706 0.154

Speed Trap

Position Number Driver Car Engine Model Max kph (mph)
1 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas Ferrari VF-23 351.9 (218.7)
2 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari Ferrari SF-23 350.8 (218.0)
3 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo Ferrari C43 350.1 (217.5)
4 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri Honda RBPT AT04 350.1 (217.5)
5 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo Ferrari C43 349.4 (217.1)
6 23 Alexander Albon Williams Mercedes FW45 349.1 (216.9)
7 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Ferrari SF-23 348.9 (216.8)
8 2 Logan Sargeant Williams Mercedes FW45 347.6 (216.0)
9 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine Renault A523 346.9 (215.6)
10 4 Lando Norris McLaren Mercedes MCL60 346.8 (215.5)
11 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin Mercedes AMR23 346.5 (215.3)
12 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri Honda RBPT AT04 346.5 (215.3)
13 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine Renault A523 346.3 (215.2)
14 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull Honda RBPT RB19 345.9 (214.9)
15 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull Honda RBPT RB19 344.0 (213.8)
16 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin Mercedes AMR23 343.6 (213.5)
17 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren Mercedes MCL60 343.5 (213.4)
18 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas Ferrari VF-23 341.3 (212.1)
19 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes W14 340.6 (211.6)
20 63 George Russell Mercedes Mercedes W14 338.6 (210.4)

Over to you

How realistic are Ferrari’s chances of ending Red Bull’s winning run at home? Share your views on the Italian Grand Prix in the comments below.

2023 Italian Grand Prix Further Reading

  • Despite close battles at Monza, F1 drivers want more powerful DRS
  • Monza “frustrating” for Alonso but Aston Martin expect better form in coming races
  • F1 changed rules to stop Mercedes in 2021 but we won’t ‘cry foul’ now – Wolff
  • McLaren will bring ‘follow-up to Austria upgrade’ before focusing on 2024 car
  • Magnussen explains why his driving style rarely works with the Haas VF-23

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