For the initial phase of the 2022 Formula 1 season, a recurring query dominated discussions leading into each race weekend: who would prevail, Red Bull or Ferrari? This rivalry formed the bedrock of the championship narrative, with both teams showcasing flashes of brilliance and moments of vulnerability. While Red Bull’s impressive streak of six consecutive victories undeniably highlighted their formidable performance, it often masked the underlying competitive landscape. Ferrari, despite possessing a car often lauded for its sheer pace, frequently squandered victory opportunities through strategic missteps, reliability woes, or being outmaneuvered on track.
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However, as the first day of practice sessions drew to a close at the Hungaroring, the landscape shifted dramatically. There was little ambiguity regarding which team held the decisive advantage around the notoriously technical circuit – and, surprisingly, it was not the runaway championship leaders, Red Bull. The Prancing Horse of Ferrari appeared to have found an early stride, hinting at a potential upset that sent ripples of concern through their rivals’ garages.
Ferrari Seizes Early Advantage in Hungary
While Max Verstappen and Red Bull have a history of trailing Ferrari on Fridays only to snatch victory on Sunday, the discernible advantage demonstrated by Ferrari in Hungary this time around was enough to genuinely worry their competitors. The Hungaroring, a circuit often likened to a street track due to its tight and twisty nature, places a premium on aerodynamic downforce, chassis balance, and driver precision. Ferrari’s strong showing suggested they had unlocked a crucial performance window perfectly suited to these demands.
A closer examination of the long race simulation runs, meticulously conducted by all main contenders towards the end of second practice, provided compelling evidence for Ferrari fans to harbor genuine optimism. These crucial stints offer the clearest indication of a car’s true race pace and tire degradation characteristics. Over eight representative laps on the medium compound tires during the final third of the session, Carlos Sainz Jnr emerged as the quickest among the ‘top six’ drivers. His impressive average lap time of 1’23.624 underscored Ferrari’s potent package. Team-mate Charles Leclerc was a mere seven hundredths of a second a lap slower, highlighting the consistent strength across both Ferrari machines. In stark contrast, Max Verstappen could only manage an average pace of 1’23.1, a significant half a second per lap slower than the Ferraris. This gap, particularly over a race stint, signals a considerable challenge for Red Bull to overcome.
Verstappen himself offered a remarkably candid assessment after Friday’s running, admitting, “I think the Ferraris will be ahead of us this weekend and it will be hard to beat them. But I think overnight we’ll try to close the gap as much as we can.” Such an admission from a driver known for his fierce competitive spirit underscores the gravity of Ferrari’s performance advantage. For Ferrari, coming off two consecutive victories in Britain and Austria, and a frustratingly squandered opportunity for a third win just last weekend, striking back hard in Hungary has become an absolute imperative as the championship heads into the crucial summer break. The most effective way to achieve this would be to decisively beat Red Bull on pure pace, and Friday’s performance indicated they were achieving this without even pushing their full potential, saving more for qualifying and the race.
Carlos Sainz, who ended the day third fastest overall behind his teammate, exuded confidence. “Straight out of the box in FP1, I felt very comfortable, very happy with the car balance,” he remarked. “I think it was a very interesting Friday. Let’s call it a test day. For tomorrow and Sunday, we will put everything that we think is more competitive.” This sentiment suggests Ferrari has further performance in reserve, which could prove decisive on Saturday and Sunday.
McLaren’s Unexpected Strength
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Intriguingly, it wasn’t Verstappen who split the two Ferraris at the end of Friday, but Lando Norris, marking an encouraging start to the event for McLaren. Norris demonstrated strong form, securing fourth position in the first session before elevating to the second fastest overall lap behind Leclerc by day’s end. Furthermore, Norris’s long-run pace proved competitive when compared to the cars around him in the order, although it’s important to note his simulations were carried out on the soft compound tires, as opposed to the mediums favored by Ferrari and Red Bull. This tire difference could account for some of his apparent pace, but it still represents a significant step forward for the Woking-based team.
McLaren’s positive day was further cemented by Daniel Ricciardo securing fifth place. Despite being faster than both Mercedes cars and one Red Bull, Ricciardo, ever the pragmatist, tempered expectations regarding the team’s ability to sustain this elevated level on the leaderboard throughout the entire weekend. “Being competitive in both sessions hopefully says something – hopefully means that we actually are competitive,” said Ricciardo, expressing cautious optimism. “I don’t think we’re competitive to fight for a pole – I’m sorry to the fans. I think if there is something, they’ll probably find a little more on Saturday come crunch time. But I think it was a good day.” McLaren’s performance nonetheless positions them as a potential disruptor in the midfield battle, and perhaps even within the top six.
Mercedes Continues to Grapple with Performance
The same buoyant sentiment could not be echoed by Mercedes. After their struggles to significantly close the performance gap to Red Bull and Ferrari in France, the Hungarian Grand Prix appeared to present an even greater challenge. Lewis Hamilton, a record eight-time winner at the Hungaroring, found himself down in eleventh position after complaining of an “unstable” car – an issue later attributed to floor damage. Meanwhile, George Russell was limited by cooling demands on his power unit, ultimately finishing over nine-tenths of a second adrift of Leclerc at the end of second practice. These issues highlight the fundamental challenges Mercedes has faced throughout the 2022 season in finding a consistent setup window for their W13 machine.
Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes’ trackside engineering director, acknowledged the team’s difficulties: “The morning session was reasonable, but we made some changes going into the afternoon on both cars that look to have taken us in the wrong direction. While we’re disappointed with the pace in the afternoon, we’ve hopefully picked up some useful learning over the day. Qualifying is more important here than at most tracks so that’s our focus. We know the car works well when it’s in the right window so that’s what we’ll be trying to achieve.” The team’s ongoing struggle to consistently extract performance from their car, particularly in hot conditions and on circuits demanding high downforce, remains a significant hurdle. Finding that elusive “right window” will be paramount for any hope of a strong result.
The Weather: A Potential Game-Changer
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Despite Ferrari’s clear advantage demonstrated during Friday’s dry running, one unpredictable factor remains entirely out of their control: the weather. This element poses the most significant risk of scuppering their chances of heading into the summer break with a crucial victory. The forecast for Saturday is far from ideal, with not merely a likelihood of intermittent rain during third practice and into qualifying, but the sheer volume of rain predicted, coupled with potential thunderstorms, could severely disrupt the entire schedule. In a worst-case scenario, if it proves impossible for qualifying to proceed on time, there is a distinct possibility it could be pushed to Sunday morning, or even for the grid to be formed based on the times from second practice – a scenario that would heavily favor Friday’s pace-setters.
Assuming that conditions remain driveable, albeit wet, it could open up a crucial opportunity for Max Verstappen and Red Bull to disrupt Ferrari once again. Red Bull often excels in mixed conditions, relying on Verstappen’s exceptional car control and the team’s adaptive strategies. Similarly, drivers like Lando Norris could shine; he famously capitalized on wet conditions at Sochi Autodrom last year to secure the only pole position of his F1 career to date. For these drivers, rain acts as an equalizer, potentially minimizing the dry-weather pace differential.
Verstappen openly acknowledged this potential: “I think in the dry we can’t compete. So maybe in the rain we can, who knows.” His statement highlights Red Bull’s hopes of turning the tables in adverse conditions. Charles Leclerc, however, recognizes the added pressure he will face to deliver in qualifying if it takes place on a wet circuit. “It looks like it’s going to rain tomorrow, so, we’ll have to be on top of this and obviously put the tires in the right window, which is always a difficult thing whenever it’s raining,” he stated. “So this will be our main priority for tomorrow. But hopefully if we can manage to put them in the right window, we will also have this advantage.” Mastering the nuances of tire temperature and grip in changeable conditions is a formidable challenge, even for the best drivers.
But there is one driver who would undoubtedly be more than happy to see it rain: Esteban Ocon. The Alpine driver famously capitalized on a damp track to win last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix. After ending Friday down in a rather uninspiring 13th position in the dry times, Ocon welcomed the prospect of challenging conditions. “I think it just puts a little bit of spice in the mix and it’s always interesting,” Ocon said. “So hopefully we are we will have a spicier qualifying tomorrow.” A wet qualifying session would certainly shake up the established pecking order and potentially create a thrilling and unpredictable grid for Sunday’s race, setting the stage for an unforgettable Hungarian Grand Prix as the F1 paddock heads into its well-deserved summer break.
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Longest stint comparison – second practice
Combined practice times
| Position | Number | Driver | Team | FP1 time | FP2 time | Gap | Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1’19.039 | 1’18.445 | 53 | |
| 2 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes | 1’19.299 | 1’18.662 | 0.217 | 50 |
| 3 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | 1’18.750 | 1’18.676 | 0.231 | 55 |
| 4 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’18.880 | 1’18.728 | 0.283 | 50 |
| 5 | 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren-Mercedes | 1’19.841 | 1’18.872 | 0.427 | 55 |
| 6 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Alpine-Renault | 1’20.377 | 1’19.049 | 0.604 | 57 |
| 7 | 5 | Sebastian Vettel | Aston Martin-Mercedes | 1’20.383 | 1’19.253 | 0.808 | 57 |
| 8 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | 1’19.606 | 1’19.355 | 0.910 | 56 |
| 9 | 11 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | 1’19.622 | 1’19.397 | 0.952 | 52 |
| 10 | 77 | Valtteri Bottas | Alfa Romeo-Ferrari | 1’19.411 | 0.966 | 30 | |
| 11 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’19.710 | 1’19.547 | 1.102 | 48 |
| 12 | 24 | Zhou Guanyu | Alfa Romeo-Ferrari | 1’20.810 | 1’19.605 | 1.160 | 49 |
| 13 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault | 1’20.348 | 1’19.614 | 1.169 | 57 |
| 14 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin-Mercedes | 1’20.414 | 1’19.702 | 1.257 | 55 |
| 15 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri-Red Bull | 1’20.456 | 1’19.730 | 1.285 | 56 |
| 16 | 20 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | 1’20.921 | 1’19.818 | 1.373 | 53 |
| 17 | 47 | Mick Schumacher | Haas-Ferrari | 1’21.027 | 1’19.985 | 1.540 | 53 |
| 18 | 6 | Nicholas Latifi | Williams-Mercedes | 1’21.413 | 1’20.488 | 2.043 | 57 |
| 19 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri-Red Bull | 1’20.695 | 1’20.521 | 2.076 | 58 |
| 20 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams-Mercedes | 1’20.834 | 1’20.615 | 2.170 | 48 |
| 21 | 88 | Robert Kubica | Alfa Romeo-Ferrari | 1’21.179 | 2.734 | 20 |
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2022 Hungarian Grand Prix
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