The Formula 1 world was sent into a frenzy when Lewis Hamilton made the bombshell announcement before the 2024 season began: he would be departing Mercedes at the end of the year to join motorsport’s most iconic team, Ferrari. This monumental career move immediately sparked an obvious and pressing question across the paddock and among fans:
Advert | Become a Supporter & go ad-free
Is Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari Move a Repeat of His Masterful Mercedes Switch?
Could this be a repeat of Hamilton’s perfectly timed and equally audacious move 11 years ago, when he left McLaren for Mercedes? That decision transformed a one-time world champion into the record-equalling holder of seven Formula 1 titles, cementing his legacy as one of the greatest drivers in history. The stakes are incredibly high, and the echoes of that past success resonate powerfully now as the F1 landscape shifts once more.
While it is undoubtedly far too early to declare definitive success for this latest strategic gambit, the initial evidence from the first four races of the 2024 Formula 1 season strongly suggests that Hamilton’s decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari is proving to be a highly prescient one. His start to the 2024 campaign has been, by many measures, his most challenging and least successful in his illustrious 18-year career. Simultaneously, his future team, Ferrari, has demonstrated remarkable progress, significantly increasing their points haul compared to the same stage in last year’s championship – a stark contrast that underscores the wisdom of Hamilton’s choice.
A Dismal Start: Hamilton’s Worst Season Opening
Lewis Hamilton’s individual performance in the opening rounds of 2024 paints a concerning picture. With just one seventh-place finish, two ninth-place finishes, and a disheartening retirement to his name, his season has begun with an unprecedented struggle. This tally represents his lowest points score after four races, marking a more challenging start even than Mercedes’ often-criticized performance in the previous two seasons with their ground-effect cars, which had notoriously failed to deliver consistent success.
The current predicament is even starker when compared to what was previously considered Hamilton’s most dismal start to a championship defense: his 2009 season with McLaren. While he has technically scored one more point this year compared to then (10 points in 2024 vs. 9 points in 2009 after four rounds), it’s crucial to acknowledge that today’s points system is significantly more generous. When 2009 results are adjusted to the current points system, Hamilton would have accumulated a much higher score, indicating a stronger underlying performance back then. In 2009, he managed a fourth, a sixth, and a seventh from the opening four rounds, and would have secured a third-place finish in Australia had he not been disqualified for a Safety Car infringement. This historical comparison highlights the depth of his current performance dip, suggesting that the W15’s challenges are profoundly impacting his ability to contend.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter andgo ad-free
This poor start is, however, only half the narrative. Not only has Hamilton endured his statistically worst start to a season, but he has also performed less successfully than virtually all of his direct rivals on the grid. This year, the competitive landscape appears to be stacked against him, at least from within the confines of his current machinery.
Hamilton vs. The Grid: Lagging Behind Rivals
A granular look at the points standings reveals the extent of Hamilton’s current struggle. He has accumulated a staggering 38 fewer points on the board compared to his tally after the first four rounds of the 2023 season. This time last year, Hamilton had already secured a podium finish and consistently placed his Mercedes in the top six in every Grand Prix. In stark contrast, his best finish so far this year remains a seventh place, showcasing a significant regression in competitive performance.
Interestingly, Hamilton’s performance slump is marginally more pronounced than that of Fernando Alonso, another veteran driver grappling with a less competitive car, who is currently 36 points down year-on-year. Like Hamilton, Alonso’s best result in 2024 fails to match his worst over the opening four rounds of the previous season. The struggles of these two titans highlight the current challenges faced by teams outside the absolute front runners, particularly as some teams surge forward.
Alonso, a two-time world champion, has been conspicuously linked with the vacant Mercedes seat that Hamilton will leave behind. However, his recent comments after assessing the minimal progress made by the ‘Silver Arrows’ were telling. Alonso expressed that joining Mercedes “doesn’t feel that attractive” at present, a sentiment that speaks volumes about the team’s current trajectory and its appeal to top-tier talent. This further validates Hamilton’s foresight in seeking a new challenge with Ferrari, a team clearly demonstrating upward momentum.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter andgo ad-free
| Pos. | Driver | 2024 points | 2023 points | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | 77 | 93 | -16 |
| 2 | Sergio Perez | 64 | 87 | -23 |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc | 59 | 28 | 31 |
| 4 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | 55 | 34 | 21 |
| 5 | Lando Norris | 37 | 10 | 27 |
| 6 | Oscar Piastri | 32 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | George Russell | 24 | 28 | -4 |
| 8 | Fernando Alonso | 24 | 60 | -36 |
| 9 | Lewis Hamilton | 10 | 48 | -38 |
| 10 | Lance Stroll | 9 | 27 | -18 |
| 11 | Yuki Tsunoda | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Nico Hulkenberg | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| 14 | Kevin Magnussen | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Alexander Albon | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 | Zhou Guanyu | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 18 | Esteban Ocon | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| 19 | Pierre Gasly | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| 20 | Valtteri Bottas | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| 21 | Logan Sargeant | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ferrari’s Resurgence: A Beacon of Hope for 2025
Despite his personal struggles, Hamilton can certainly draw considerable comfort and optimism from the significant progress being made by his future team. Ferrari has demonstrated a remarkable uplift in performance, scoring almost double the points in the first four rounds of 2024 compared to their tally over the same period in 2023. This is an exceptionally impressive feat, particularly when one considers the mitigating circumstances.
Last year’s points score was somewhat inflated by the inclusion of a sprint race as round four, offering additional points opportunities. Furthermore, Ferrari’s scoring potential in Saudi Arabia this year was diminished when rookie Oliver Bearman had to be drafted in at very short notice to substitute for the unwell Carlos Sainz Jnr. Despite these challenges, the Scuderia has consistently outperformed expectations, showcasing improved pace, reliability, and strategic execution. The SF-24 appears to be a much more versatile and competitive machine, capable of challenging Red Bull on certain tracks, a development that bodes incredibly well for Hamilton’s arrival in 2025. The internal dynamics, with Charles Leclerc consistently performing and Carlos Sainz delivering stellar drives (including a victory just weeks after appendicitis surgery), highlight a team brimming with renewed confidence and capability.
Broader F1 Landscape: McLaren’s Leap and Backmarker Woes
Ferrari is not alone in making substantial gains. Only one other team on the grid has shown anything close to Ferrari’s year-on-year improvement: McLaren. The Woking-based outfit has amassed 69 points so far this season, marking their best points haul at this stage since Lewis Hamilton himself last drove for them in 2012. McLaren’s trajectory, driven by strong development and impressive performances from Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, further illustrates that significant shifts are occurring within the competitive order of Formula 1, challenging the established pecking order.
Conversely, it has become increasingly evident that the teams at the back of the grid are finding it much harder to score points this season. At this same stage in 2023, every single team on the grid had managed to secure at least one championship point. However, in 2024, teams such as Alpine, Sauber, and Williams remain stuck on zero points, indicating a widening performance gap and intensified competition for those precious lower-midfield positions. This polarization of performance suggests that development budgets and efficiency are becoming ever more critical under the current regulations, creating a challenging environment for smaller teams to break into the points-paying positions.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter andgo ad-free
| Pos. | Team | 2024 points | 2023 points | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull | 141 | 180 | -39 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 120 | 62 | 58 |
| 3 | McLaren | 69 | 14 | 55 |
| 4 | Mercedes | 34 | 76 | -42 |
| 5 | Aston Martin | 33 | 87 | -54 |
| 6 | RB | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Haas | 4 | 7 | -3 |
| 8 | Williams | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 9 | Sauber | 0 | 6 | -6 |
| 10 | Alpine | 0 | 8 | -8 |
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter andgo ad-free
The Wisdom of Hamilton’s Leap of Faith
As Lewis Hamilton navigates what is undeniably the most challenging start to a Formula 1 season in his illustrious career, the current performance trends of Mercedes and Ferrari provide a compelling narrative. His current team, Mercedes, continues to grapple with fundamental issues in their car concept, showing little signs of a significant breakthrough that would allow them to consistently challenge at the very front of the grid. The frustration for Hamilton, a driver accustomed to winning and contending for championships, must be immense, underscored by his declining points tally and struggles against not just the Red Bulls but also the improving Ferraris and McLarens.
Conversely, the Scuderia Ferrari is clearly on an upward trajectory. The substantial increase in their points haul, coupled with strong race performances and strategic improvements, paints a picture of a team that is not only learning from its past mistakes but also effectively developing a competitive package for the future. This divergence in fortunes between his current and future teams strongly indicates that Hamilton’s decision, initially viewed with some skepticism due to its disruptive nature, was a carefully calculated and astute move. It appears to be less a gamble and more a strategic realignment with a team that offers a brighter prospect for championship contention, especially with the impending regulation changes in 2026.
The anticipation for Lewis Hamilton’s debut in red is now even more palpable. His final season with Mercedes will be a defining period, as he aims to extract every last ounce of performance from the W15 while simultaneously observing the progress of his future home. The parallels with his 2013 move to Mercedes, a team then finding its footing, are striking. If Ferrari continues on this upward path, Hamilton’s bold decision to chase an eighth world title with the Prancing Horse could indeed prove to be another masterstroke, echoing his past triumphs and potentially writing a glorious new chapter in Formula 1 history.
Ultimately, the 2024 season is shaping up to be a transitional one for Hamilton, filled with both personal challenges and the tantalizing promise of a revitalized future. His commitment to Ferrari, viewed through the lens of current team performances, looks increasingly like a strategic move designed not just to extend his career, but to reignite his championship aspirations with a team ready to deliver on its iconic legacy.