Hamilton’s Bottas Endorsement: Does the Data Hold Up?

Lewis Hamilton, having clinched the Formula 1 World Championship title with three races still on the calendar, took an uncharacteristic moment yesterday to publicly acknowledge and laud his teammate’s efforts. Far from simply celebrating his own success, Hamilton was quick to praise Valtteri Bottas for his commendable fight, which, in Hamilton’s view, played a crucial role in keeping the championship battle alive for as long as it did.

According to the multi-time champion, Bottas has undeniably edged closer to him in terms of raw, pure performance throughout the current season. Hamilton also suggested that the final standings, displaying a significant points difference between them, are not a true reflection of their relative speeds. He attributed this exaggerated gap largely to instances of unreliability on Bottas’s side and the unique structure of Formula 1’s points system.

But how accurate is Hamilton’s assessment? Is the data truly aligning with his generous words? Let’s meticulously examine the numbers and contextual factors to gain a clearer perspective on the performance dynamic within the Mercedes garage.

Hamilton vs. Bottas: A Deep Dive into Performance Data

“Valtteri is undeniably getting stronger and stronger each year, a fact that’s clear to anyone watching his dedication,” Hamilton observed just yesterday. He then referenced the ephemeral “Bottas 2.0” moniker that gained traction on social media after his teammate’s impressive victory at the opening race of the previous season. “The media has often commented on the ‘2.0’ narrative, and it speaks volumes about his evolution,” Hamilton added, acknowledging the public perception of Bottas’s development.

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Hamilton continued his commendation, highlighting Bottas’s relentless pursuit of improvement: “Every year, you can visibly see him just grafting away, meticulously chipping at his weaknesses, and consistently trying to raise the bar in so many different areas of his driving. In race trim, particularly, it’s been my consistency this year that has truly made the difference. However, if you scrutinize individual race weekends, the performance gap between us was often incredibly narrow.”

While Hamilton, as Bottas’s teammate, possesses unparalleled insight into the Finn’s behind-the-scenes efforts and dedication, an objective look at the raw results from the current truncated season, when juxtaposed against last year’s full campaign, presents a somewhat different picture. It becomes challenging, if not difficult, to unequivocally discern a clear, measurable improvement in Bottas’s on-track performance this year. In fact, by some metrics, it could be argued that Bottas has slightly regressed rather than advanced.

It’s crucial to acknowledge the context: we are comparing an abridged season of 14 races against a complete 21-round calendar from the previous year – a season 50% longer. Nevertheless, even accounting for this disparity and examining performance on a proportional basis, the trend appears consistent. Bottas has not qualified ahead of Hamilton, led more laps, or finished races ahead of his teammate as frequently in 2020 as he managed to do in 2019. This proportional decline suggests a slight widening of the gap, contrary to Hamilton’s generous assessment.

Hamilton thoughtfully asserted that the substantial points deficit between the two Mercedes drivers is partly exaggerated by the very structure of the F1 scoring system, specifically pointing to the “gap of seven points” that separates first and second place. This difference, he highlighted, amplifies the impact of victories. Additionally, Hamilton emphasized Bottas’s unfortunate streak of reliability issues this year, stating, “Valtteri was also unlucky this year with a reliability issue, so it makes that gap even bigger than it [really] is, distorting the true picture of our relative performances.”

There are indeed two significant facets to this argument. On one hand, the difference between taking first and second place (seven points) is more than double the three-point gap between second and third. This differential undoubtedly magnifies the points earned by a dominant winner like Hamilton. However, it’s also important to note that this points structure was equally in effect last year, making it less of a factor in explaining the *change* in their relative performance or the proportional difference in their points accumulation this season.

Where Hamilton’s point truly holds weight is regarding Bottas’s genuine misfortunes with reliability. The Nurburgring saw Bottas grapple with a debilitating power unit problem, forcing him out of contention. More dramatically, at Silverstone, both Mercedes drivers suffered late-race punctures. While Hamilton, with a substantial lead, miraculously nursed his car across the finish line to clinch victory, Bottas, running in a podium position, plummeted out of the points altogether due to his own tire failure. To illustrate the impact, even if we conservatively estimate these setbacks cost Bottas a third-place finish at Nurburgring and a second-place finish at Silverstone, he would realistically be approximately 33 points better off. This revised tally would have kept him mathematically in contention for the championship right until the final races, underscoring how crucial these moments of bad luck truly were.

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Hamilton vs. Bottas: Qualifying Gap Analysis in 2020 (First 14 Races)

Another crucial aspect where Lewis Hamilton firmly believes Valtteri Bottas is elevating his game is in qualifying performance. Yet, upon closer inspection, Hamilton might be displaying a touch of characteristic generosity in his assessment here as well.

“If you look at a significant number of the qualifying sessions this year, the margins between us were incredibly small,” Hamilton explained, underscoring the intensity of their internal battle. “So, closing the gap in qualifying is something he has undeniably achieved already, which has made it quite challenging for me. He certainly did so last year too, but I would argue it’s been even more pronounced this season.”

An examination of the qualifying time differences between the two Mercedes drivers over the course of the 2020 season clearly reveals that many sessions were indeed tightly contested. Bottas notably missed out on beating Hamilton to pole position by less than a tenth of a second on three separate occasions, and by precisely a tenth twice more. These razor-thin margins undeniably point to a high level of performance from Bottas on single-lap pace.

However, this closeness operates both ways. While Bottas was on the cusp of pole numerous times, Hamilton also lost pole position by less than a tenth of a second on three occasions to Bottas (with one instance resulting in Hamilton losing pole due to a penalty, highlighting how fine the margins were). This demonstrates that while Bottas was often close, Hamilton maintained a slight but consistent edge.

When considering the average qualifying gap across the season, it becomes challenging to substantiate Hamilton’s perceived improvement. In 2019, Bottas was, on average, 0.122 seconds slower than Hamilton over a qualifying lap. This year, even if we exclude the significant outlier of the Styrian Grand Prix, where conditions and setup unique to that session skewed the data, the average gap has actually widened slightly to 0.165 seconds. This modest increase suggests that while individual sessions were close, the overall trend doesn’t quite support a demonstrable narrowing of the average qualifying performance.

Hamilton vs. Bottas: Qualifying Gap Analysis in 2019 (First 14 Races)

Undoubtedly, these average gaps, whether 0.122s or 0.165s, represent incredibly small margins in the high-stakes world of Formula 1 qualifying. Yet, once again, the objective data suggests that Hamilton might be extending a touch too much credit to Bottas in this specific area. In terms of pure performance, if the pendulum has swung at all between the two drivers, it’s certainly not by a significant margin, and if anything, it appears to have remained marginally in Hamilton’s favor this season.

Hamilton’s remarks are both accurate and remarkably fair when he highlights Bottas’s enhanced scoring rate this year and, crucially, the fact that he has suffered more significant losses due to poor luck with his machinery. This perspective is vital for understanding the true dynamic between the two. That said, there’s another substantial factor at play which has received less discussion: the overall competitive landscape of the 2020 Formula 1 season. Mercedes’ primary rivals have been notably weaker this year, resulting in fewer instances of other teams being able to interject and snatch valuable points away from the Mercedes duo. This lack of external pressure potentially magnifies the internal points difference, as there are fewer opportunities for rivals to split Hamilton and Bottas in races.

Nonetheless, despite the statistical nuances, it is abundantly clear that Lewis Hamilton harbors nothing but profound respect for his teammate’s extraordinary mental stamina, unwavering work ethic, and consistent approach to Grand Prix weekends. This mutual respect is a cornerstone of Mercedes’ dominant success.

“People absolutely need to give Valtteri his due respect,” Hamilton stated emphatically. “You’ve truly got to remember who he’s driving up against. It is by no means an easy task to be my teammate in this environment, but he comes in weekend in, weekend out with the exact same unyielding mentality. He’s never found moaning or complaining that something is fundamentally wrong with the car; his consistent response is always just, ‘I’ve got to do a better job.’ This self-accountability is truly remarkable.”

Hamilton continued to praise Bottas’s unique qualities: “I genuinely don’t know any other driver that consistently maintains that kind of composure and self-reflection here in the paddock, and I think that’s something we deeply share in common. I’d like to think we both approach these weekends with a fresh, determined head. Mentally, he is without a doubt one of the strongest and most resilient drivers currently on the grid.”

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

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